Israel’s Election Roundup: Week 1

A regular breakdown and political roundup by Director Shmuel von Weisl of ongoing developments in the run-up to Israel’s 2026 election cycle

Situation Rundown

52 days until election day (27.10.2026), finalised election lists close on 7-8th September.

Channel 12: 70 seats to the opposition (including Arab parties), 50 seats to the government

Channel 14: 66 to the government, 46 to the opposition, 8 to the Arab parties.

Parties in contention, Government bloc:

-Likud (Netanyahu)

-Shas (Deri)

-Agudah-Degel (Gafni, Goldknopf)

-Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir)

-Religious Zionists (Smotrich)

Opposition bloc:

-Yashar (Eisenkott)

-Beyachad (Bennett +Lapid)

-The Democrats (Golan)

-Yisrael Beytenu (Lieberman)

-Hadash-Ta’al (Tibi)

-Ra’am (Abbas)

New/small Parties

-Blue and White (Gantz)

-Zionist Home (Erdan)

-New Economy (Zelika)

-Haredi Public (Leitner)

Key Developments: 1.    Winter is Coming

After months of speculation, Ofir Winter, former IDF Brigadier-General, has launched his new party Amcha Yisrael – People of Israel. With Yosef Haddad, Arab advocate for Israel on the world stage, as number 2 on the party list, the party is the latest in a growing group of small and new parties vying for right-wing votes.

Although it is still early days, polling of Winter’s party has it hovering around the vote threshold of 3.25%. This is the threshold required for any party to gain seats at the Knesset. Should it pass that threshold, it can expect to win 4-5 seats in the Knesset.

Drawing criticism from senior figures on the right – amongst them Yair Netanyahu, son of the PM – the party has been accused of putting Smotrich’s National Religious party at risk of not crossing the 3.25% threshold and overall harming the right-wing bloc.

Further speculation has been ignited by Winter’s refusal to outright declare which government he would support, although at their launch event, Winter sharply criticised the government’s handling of the war following the October 7th attacks.

2.        Call for unity on the right

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s releases a rare video addressing Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit – Jewish Power to renew his election pact with Smotrich’s Religious Zionists. Instead, Smotrich has decided to run together with Feiglin’s Zehut – Jewish Identity party to ensure they safely pass the 3.25% vote threshold.

Latest polls put Otzma Yehudit to win 8-9 Knesset seats, while Religious Zionists were hovering just on or below the vote threshold.

Although they ran together in 2022, Ben Gvir and Smotrich’s relationship turned sour quickly, and they have refused to meet to renew their election pact. Latest polling from Channel 12 predicts a comfortable 5-seat result for Zehut and RZ’s newly joined parties.

Although this merger didn’t massively affect Winter’s new party’s chances of passing the threshold, further calls from both Smotrich and Fieglin are publicly urging Winter to join their pact and ensure no votes on the right are wasted.

3.        First Jewish Knesset Member joins an Arab party

Former Yesh Atid – Future Hope MK Yoav Segalovitch has made Israeli Election history by being the first Jewish MK to join an Arab Party, Ra’am lead by Mansour Abbas.

Ra’am similarly shares in history-making by being the first Arab party to form a government, under Bennett-Lapid’s coalition government in 2021.

A former senior Police commander, as reported by I24, he is the highest polling Jewish politician among Arab voters. Segalovitch’s departure from Yesh Atid, currently running jointly with Bennet’s party, comes amid a wave of senior resignations from the party polling below 11 seats. This is a far cry from being the party to first to lead in the polls for the opposition bloc, which is now led by Eizenkott’s Yashar – Straight Ahead.

This also comes at a good time for Ra’am – especially following Mansour Abbas’ controversial comment that he was forced to accept Israel’s Jewish identity to pass the electoral commission. But it is still to be seen whether Segalovitch’s admission to Ra’am will have any effect on polling.